The results for much awaited Bihar Assembly elections'15 are out. The grand-alliance (MGB) Nitish-Lalu-Rahul has clicked in perhaps beyond all anticipation and expectations, sweeping two-thirds of the seats is not what NDA would have ever imagined in the wildest of their dreams. MGB win over NDA has been and would be analysed by many political analysts, thinkers, the "pujaris" of democracy and the intellectual social media (Fb-itna posts to India ke 2011 WC ke baad me nahi aaya hoga, Twitter, WhatsApp, Instagram etc.) "junta". Since I failed to categorize myself in these compartments of analysts, so I choose this private yet public platform to highlight (not analyse) a few salient features of today's results-
a. "Cast your vote not Vote your caste" is a common saying on the eve of National Voters Day (25th January) and election season by people of so-called caste driven society of India.
Rural population still votes either to the candidate who gives freebies (cash/jewellery,alcohol,sarees etc.) a day or two before V-Day (Voting Day) or the candidate of their caste (Yadav/Kurmi/Dalit/Mahadalit etc.). As the former has been controlled this to a large extent by the excellent work of district administration via Flying Squad Teams (FST), Static Surveillance Teams (SST) and Video Surveillance Teams (VST) who have ensured a strict vigil and control day and night over the movement of things- illicit liquor, cash>50k etc, the latter still prevails.
The urban literate/educated society vote to the candidate who belongs to the party of their ideology (may/may not be on the basis of caste). Here the profile of the candidate matters a lot, e.g. If a candidate is a businessman, all businessmen/women would vote to him irrespective of the caste and other indicators/parameters.
To add to it, Class plays a big role here. Forward (Brahmans, Kshatriyas, Bhumiyars, Vaishyas, Kayasthas etc.) vote to the party whom they believe stands for them (Its widely believed BJP is a forward-class party- Ever since the days Congress introduced Land Reforms, making the zamindars and the land-ruling class unhappy; though later bad implementation of these reforms to ensure the party continues the support of these classes and BJP using "Kamandal", Rath, Babri and most recent Dadri has maintained its status as a Hindu and "forwards" party).
But even in such a scenario, if you have a close look on the list of candidates who came out to be winner and runner-up, you would find that both belong to the same caste e.g. Mahadalit vs Mahadalit ; Brahman vs Brahman as evident from SITAMARHI 24-BATHNAHA Dinkar Ram BJP 67460 Surendra Ram INC 47649 19811 17/19; MADHUBANI 32-BENIPATTI Bhawana Jha INC 41676 VINOD NARAIN JHA BJP 38187 3489 14/19 or Caste 1 v/s Caste 2- the top two castes as far as the voter base is concerned e.g. Brahman vs Yadav MADHUBANI 38-JHANJHARPUR NITISH MISHRA BJP 41411 GULAB YADAV RJD 35370 6041 12/20.
Thus, both the parties (winner & runner-up) filed candidates not on the basis of ideology (Forward-BJP or Lalu Yadav- Yadav or INC-Muslim) or merit (Doctor, Engg, Lawyer but criminals) but CASTE. So, when all the parties resorted to the same, what do you think who should be blamed- People's mindset/educational levels/poverty or Political parties' ideology/politicizing caste factor?
b. Manifesto- Development or Deviation- LS elections'14 were fought between two parties predominantly in the name of Corruption, Policy paralysis, Development, fighting poverty (despite the runling party had emerged as a right-based party- Right to work, Right to education etc.) and the Vikash Purush Mr. Modi with a clean image and nice branding of good work exhibited in Gujarat (3 times CM) and the development model he used there and promised to replicate the same for the entire country if voted to power. The mandate spoke the rest- Modi (BJP) bagged a thumping victory as people voted not for BJP etc. but for an image which can make a better image of the country in international arena (which majority would accept has been achieved); for development of the Poorest of the Poor and not skewed development of Adanis, Ambanis, Tatas, Birlas, upper middle class (the last beneficiaries); for making India a favorable business/tourism/educational destination (Ease of doing business rankings and FDI & Tourism inflows speaks all).
Without discussing the report card of 1.5 years rule of the central government (as that is not what we are analyzing here), did NDA reached out to the Bihari (identity not slang) voters on the same agenda or had they got deviated to something else-Ideology of the parent organisation and the politics revolving around it, "Kuch bhi" type speeches/comments of BJP leaders, Beef incident, Intolerance (the new buzz word), Award wapsi etc.
This is not what people had expected from the Vikash Purush of Gujarat 2 India NaMo. I seriously think if the manifesto of NDA would have been aligned towards Development, then the mandate would also have been aligned in the opposite direction than the status quo.
The BJP mandate on the other hand revolved around 5000 scooties/year (with free petrol), the 1.65 lakh CR special package to Bihar etc.; it lacked the vigour the people would have expected from the charismatic persona of Mr. Modi and his developmental plans (replicable on ground most importantly). The party perhaps tried to match with the opposition's manifesto, thus losing the edge it had in a politically active and vigilant state (where urban votes less than rural and female vote more than male).
3. Alliances- Bane or Boon- The alliance BJP made with parties like LJP (Jo Jeeta Woh Sikandar, Hum Usi ke andar), RLSP (family Kushwaha party), HAM (Manjhi-the controversial statement lover ex-CM) can also be a major reason for its debacle. On the one hand, you are supposed to be a forward-backing party, and on the other you have shaken hands with Mahadalit (HAM), Dalit (LJP), EBC (RLSP), forces one to vote for the candidate but party/alliance (a clean imaged candidate irrespective of party matters more than the candidate of the centre-ruling party alliance).- If you look at LS elections'15, the alliance NDA didn't win but its PM candidate Modi won, on a similar note, today the alliance MGB didn't win but CM candidate Mr. Nitish Kumar (a comparatively cleaner image than anyone else in the state-not to compare the two-Mr.Nitish vs Modi; apart from the caste/religion factor & development in last 2 terms bringing Bihar from -ve to +ve on the national arena). There is a marked difference in the victories of these 2 Vikash Purush- Modi (Gujarat 2 India) and Nitish (Bihar 2 an unsuccessful aspirant of India)- The "FACE" or the direct person in-charge of the nation/state affairs; BJP didn't name the CM candidate-perhaps due to Kiran Bedi factor in Delhi Assembly elections (3/70) or caste/religion factor and its possible impact on the mandate or it couldn't find a single candidate (even a Saankha-Sangh Parivar Karyakarta) deserving for this post. In such a blurred scenario, this is what they have now (a half century as consolation prize). When you are self-sufficient and confident on the your ideology and agenda of development as the sole manifesto item, stick to it, propagate it and reap the mandate similar to LS'14 (unexpectedly expected) rather than making self-hurting and contradictory alliances (Ek taraf Brahman ko vote kare yaha and waha ek Mahadalit ki jeetne ke liye prathana bhi kare).
Thus, in the end I would like to conclude with a statement and uncertainty about our self-created and decided future, let us understand and accept a basic thing that we have elected a government under the CMship of the Vikash Purush of Bihar, which may do wonders (converge) by making us No.1 in development & ease of a happy & peaceful living for all OR do wanders (diverge) by making us No.1 in backwardness (BIMARO- Odisha tops the list now) & ease of doing criminal activities-loot, extortion, kidnapping, burglary etc. (Jungle Raj returns); a stable yet coalition government under Mr.Nitish for the coming 5 years or a general coalition government always on the verge of compromise in the name of preventing a re-election within the tenure of 5 years (aspirations of Lalu's sons and RJD after bagging more seats than Nitish on his name itself).
Bihar is on the crossroads of a development paradigm or Jungle Raj 2.0!!!
A crucial thing for this government is the manner in which Nitish Kumar handles the other 2 parties of alliance (the biggest beneficiaries in this election) and their representatives in Vidhan Sabha, ministries and bureaucrats (Hope Caste and chamchagiri are not the parameters for posting@districts).
Lets not forget its we who make it, who run it, and who destroy it. Let us pledge that we won't tolerate (?) and ensure that the haunting past of Jungle Raj 1.0 won't return even if attempted to be returned, by staying united and together under the same umbrella of a state that has always been famous (infamous) because of several reasons.
Jai Hind, Jai Bihar, Jai Biharis!!!
a. "Cast your vote not Vote your caste" is a common saying on the eve of National Voters Day (25th January) and election season by people of so-called caste driven society of India.
Rural population still votes either to the candidate who gives freebies (cash/jewellery,alcohol,sarees etc.) a day or two before V-Day (Voting Day) or the candidate of their caste (Yadav/Kurmi/Dalit/Mahadalit etc.). As the former has been controlled this to a large extent by the excellent work of district administration via Flying Squad Teams (FST), Static Surveillance Teams (SST) and Video Surveillance Teams (VST) who have ensured a strict vigil and control day and night over the movement of things- illicit liquor, cash>50k etc, the latter still prevails.
The urban literate/educated society vote to the candidate who belongs to the party of their ideology (may/may not be on the basis of caste). Here the profile of the candidate matters a lot, e.g. If a candidate is a businessman, all businessmen/women would vote to him irrespective of the caste and other indicators/parameters.
To add to it, Class plays a big role here. Forward (Brahmans, Kshatriyas, Bhumiyars, Vaishyas, Kayasthas etc.) vote to the party whom they believe stands for them (Its widely believed BJP is a forward-class party- Ever since the days Congress introduced Land Reforms, making the zamindars and the land-ruling class unhappy; though later bad implementation of these reforms to ensure the party continues the support of these classes and BJP using "Kamandal", Rath, Babri and most recent Dadri has maintained its status as a Hindu and "forwards" party).
But even in such a scenario, if you have a close look on the list of candidates who came out to be winner and runner-up, you would find that both belong to the same caste e.g. Mahadalit vs Mahadalit ; Brahman vs Brahman as evident from SITAMARHI 24-BATHNAHA Dinkar Ram BJP 67460 Surendra Ram INC 47649 19811 17/19; MADHUBANI 32-BENIPATTI Bhawana Jha INC 41676 VINOD NARAIN JHA BJP 38187 3489 14/19 or Caste 1 v/s Caste 2- the top two castes as far as the voter base is concerned e.g. Brahman vs Yadav MADHUBANI 38-JHANJHARPUR NITISH MISHRA BJP 41411 GULAB YADAV RJD 35370 6041 12/20.
Thus, both the parties (winner & runner-up) filed candidates not on the basis of ideology (Forward-BJP or Lalu Yadav- Yadav or INC-Muslim) or merit (Doctor, Engg, Lawyer but criminals) but CASTE. So, when all the parties resorted to the same, what do you think who should be blamed- People's mindset/educational levels/poverty or Political parties' ideology/politicizing caste factor?
b. Manifesto- Development or Deviation- LS elections'14 were fought between two parties predominantly in the name of Corruption, Policy paralysis, Development, fighting poverty (despite the runling party had emerged as a right-based party- Right to work, Right to education etc.) and the Vikash Purush Mr. Modi with a clean image and nice branding of good work exhibited in Gujarat (3 times CM) and the development model he used there and promised to replicate the same for the entire country if voted to power. The mandate spoke the rest- Modi (BJP) bagged a thumping victory as people voted not for BJP etc. but for an image which can make a better image of the country in international arena (which majority would accept has been achieved); for development of the Poorest of the Poor and not skewed development of Adanis, Ambanis, Tatas, Birlas, upper middle class (the last beneficiaries); for making India a favorable business/tourism/educational destination (Ease of doing business rankings and FDI & Tourism inflows speaks all).
Without discussing the report card of 1.5 years rule of the central government (as that is not what we are analyzing here), did NDA reached out to the Bihari (identity not slang) voters on the same agenda or had they got deviated to something else-Ideology of the parent organisation and the politics revolving around it, "Kuch bhi" type speeches/comments of BJP leaders, Beef incident, Intolerance (the new buzz word), Award wapsi etc.
This is not what people had expected from the Vikash Purush of Gujarat 2 India NaMo. I seriously think if the manifesto of NDA would have been aligned towards Development, then the mandate would also have been aligned in the opposite direction than the status quo.
The BJP mandate on the other hand revolved around 5000 scooties/year (with free petrol), the 1.65 lakh CR special package to Bihar etc.; it lacked the vigour the people would have expected from the charismatic persona of Mr. Modi and his developmental plans (replicable on ground most importantly). The party perhaps tried to match with the opposition's manifesto, thus losing the edge it had in a politically active and vigilant state (where urban votes less than rural and female vote more than male).
3. Alliances- Bane or Boon- The alliance BJP made with parties like LJP (Jo Jeeta Woh Sikandar, Hum Usi ke andar), RLSP (family Kushwaha party), HAM (Manjhi-the controversial statement lover ex-CM) can also be a major reason for its debacle. On the one hand, you are supposed to be a forward-backing party, and on the other you have shaken hands with Mahadalit (HAM), Dalit (LJP), EBC (RLSP), forces one to vote for the candidate but party/alliance (a clean imaged candidate irrespective of party matters more than the candidate of the centre-ruling party alliance).- If you look at LS elections'15, the alliance NDA didn't win but its PM candidate Modi won, on a similar note, today the alliance MGB didn't win but CM candidate Mr. Nitish Kumar (a comparatively cleaner image than anyone else in the state-not to compare the two-Mr.Nitish vs Modi; apart from the caste/religion factor & development in last 2 terms bringing Bihar from -ve to +ve on the national arena). There is a marked difference in the victories of these 2 Vikash Purush- Modi (Gujarat 2 India) and Nitish (Bihar 2 an unsuccessful aspirant of India)- The "FACE" or the direct person in-charge of the nation/state affairs; BJP didn't name the CM candidate-perhaps due to Kiran Bedi factor in Delhi Assembly elections (3/70) or caste/religion factor and its possible impact on the mandate or it couldn't find a single candidate (even a Saankha-Sangh Parivar Karyakarta) deserving for this post. In such a blurred scenario, this is what they have now (a half century as consolation prize). When you are self-sufficient and confident on the your ideology and agenda of development as the sole manifesto item, stick to it, propagate it and reap the mandate similar to LS'14 (unexpectedly expected) rather than making self-hurting and contradictory alliances (Ek taraf Brahman ko vote kare yaha and waha ek Mahadalit ki jeetne ke liye prathana bhi kare).
Thus, in the end I would like to conclude with a statement and uncertainty about our self-created and decided future, let us understand and accept a basic thing that we have elected a government under the CMship of the Vikash Purush of Bihar, which may do wonders (converge) by making us No.1 in development & ease of a happy & peaceful living for all OR do wanders (diverge) by making us No.1 in backwardness (BIMARO- Odisha tops the list now) & ease of doing criminal activities-loot, extortion, kidnapping, burglary etc. (Jungle Raj returns); a stable yet coalition government under Mr.Nitish for the coming 5 years or a general coalition government always on the verge of compromise in the name of preventing a re-election within the tenure of 5 years (aspirations of Lalu's sons and RJD after bagging more seats than Nitish on his name itself).
Bihar is on the crossroads of a development paradigm or Jungle Raj 2.0!!!
A crucial thing for this government is the manner in which Nitish Kumar handles the other 2 parties of alliance (the biggest beneficiaries in this election) and their representatives in Vidhan Sabha, ministries and bureaucrats (Hope Caste and chamchagiri are not the parameters for posting@districts).
Lets not forget its we who make it, who run it, and who destroy it. Let us pledge that we won't tolerate (?) and ensure that the haunting past of Jungle Raj 1.0 won't return even if attempted to be returned, by staying united and together under the same umbrella of a state that has always been famous (infamous) because of several reasons.
Jai Hind, Jai Bihar, Jai Biharis!!!
